What a president should know...

I'm on the emailing list for Policy Exchange, the right-wing think tank.

At the moment in policy wonk land you can't move without bumping into a former presidential economics adviser. The one who is appearing courtesy of Policy Exchange is a Dr Lawrence B. Lindsey "Dr Lindsey was economic advisor to three US Presidents, Director of the National Economic Council 2001-2002, and Governor of the Federal Reserve 1991-1997. He is the author of What a President Should Know...but Most Learn Too Late. Famous for having predicted the dot com crash, Dr Lindsey was the architect of the trillion dollar tax cut which helped pull the US out of the post-2001 slump."

Discuss.

At the White House, November 4th 2008

Me with, from left to right: John, Phil, Andy, Greg and Jamie.

Sarah Palin in the White House kitchen.

More pics from polling day, November 4th 2008

November 4th 2008, Overtown, Miami

To the kids we met on polling day in Overtown, Miami. Here are the pics I promised. If you want copies, drop me an email with your address. And hope you had a party Tuesday night!

Just the beginning of change...

I think because I’ve been in the mindset all week of trying not to get my hopes up too much, it’s now hard to digest that yes, Obama really is President Elect. All seems a bit unreal. According to news reports, he was there to send his kids off to school this morning. Imagine heading off to school and sitting in class, knowing your Dad is now President. I suppose they’ve had a while to get used to the idea, but still….

In some ways last night was a bit of an anti-climax as it became obvious so early on that he was on course for victory, especially because the biggest blue state, California, comes in late – so as soon as he won Pennsylvania and we started getting stats on how he’d got the white working class vote, he’d got the women’s vote, he’d got the Hispanic vote, it was game over for McCain.

There was no nail-biting, not mounting sense of anticipation. Plus we were all absolutely shattered. We started off briefly at Sky’s White House, (along with Trainspotting author Irvine Welsh, who has an apartment in Miami and was being interviewed by them), but left pretty quickly to go to the Democrat party at Jungle Island so we could be with people who had spent most of their political lives campaigning for this moment. (Although actually, at the Obama campaign centre yesterday, there had been 150 volunteers signing in before lunchtime, and most of those we spoke to had never been involved in any election campaign before.) Best moment was when he came on stage in Grant Park; we were all standing on chairs watching it on a giant screen. Phenomenal speech. John and Greg blubbed. (John has been trying to get a mention on my blog all week, so there you go John).

Anyway, someone else (John, there's your second mention) has joined me and I can’t blog when I’m being watched! So, will finish this some other time…

White House here we come!

No, not that White House. We're at the Sky News White House on the waterfront in a very, very plush part of Miami beach; very different from the area we were GOTV-ing in this morning.

Some of us are going to be interviewed soon for their 'decision time' slot, which will be on the website for the next 24 hours and possibly on TV later. And we've also been invited to their election night party, which is very kind of them.

More later!

Election day

Our departure this morning has been delayed a bit, so another chance to blog. [Obviously the posts below make better sense if read in reverse order but you could work for that out for yourself, I'm sure].

One of the interesting things about being ‘on the scene’ so to speak is to see how the media covers the election. I’m not convinced it’s in the bag for Obama, but the McCain campaign is already blaming it on a biased media (have they never seen Fox News?)

A few interesting snippets on this morning’s coverage. Apparently the Irish Catholics are switching to Obama. Traditionally staunch Democrats they swung to Bush in recent years on so-called ‘morality’ issues (i.e. abortion), but the importance of morality issues tends to pale when the economy becomes the main concern, so they’re back with the Democrats.

Turnout already seems to be high, and the lines are long. What’s bizarre about this election is that on the one hand it’s the ultimate in professionalized politics: the money spent, the TV ads, the organisation on the ground. On the other hand it feels like we’re in a developing country that has only recently embraced democracy: the poverty, the huge queues outside polling stations, the mono-ethnic precincts, people voting for the first time in their lives… It’s the two sides of America that Hurricane Katrina showed up so vividly.

We’re heading to Overtown soon, a predominantly black American neighbourhood, to see what’s going on at the polling stations. On Sunday I met a few of the 5000 attorneys who have headed for Florida to volunteer at the polls and advise people who are having trouble voting, (Florida having a certain notoriety in this respect, of course). So we’ll be in Obama territory, but might be seeing something of the McCain campaign at some point too, if we venture further afield.

Bob the builder

Monday was a total contrast to Sunday. The sun shone all day and we went to Ocean Drive, which is the art-deco-ish part of Miami. So, a bit more affluent, and more Hispanic than black. Still mostly Obama supporters though.

In the afternoon we were asked to do some ‘visibility’ work, which involved standing by Miami Bridge waving “Change” banners and asking motorists to ‘Honk for Obama’. Let’s just say if the election depends on cab-drivers, it’s an Obama landslide. And the bus drivers, and even an ambulance driver, who turned on his siren for us. Even the Hummer drivers seemed to like him too. Only a few rude gestures, and one guy who looked like Charlton Heston who wound down his car window and said: ‘that guy [Obama] should be in the army!’…. ‘Change? He couldn’t change a diaper’… then finally, very cross by now, surrounded by blaring horns and about 20 mad Brits waving Obama banners: “I pay taxes!”

Everyone said it reminded them of 1997, not so much because of the overwhelming support, but because of just how enthusiastic and fired-up the supporters are. And that feeling of being on the cusp of ‘change’.

Contrary to national stereotype, the Brits are much louder than the Americans, especially when it comes to shouting variations on the ‘Yes we can!’ line. ‘Can we get on the bus/ have a cookie/ cross the road/ etc, etc.’ ‘Yes we can!’ The Americans probably got fed up with that months ago.

Going to sign off now… election day tomorrow. And the battery is running out.

By the next time I blog there will be a new President (Elect). How exciting!

Joe the plumber

Got to go into fast forward mode now, as it’s gone midnight and we’ve got an early start tomorrow. And this is already the longest blog ever….

Sunday evening we went out for something to eat, and then to the John McCain midnight rally (apparently designed to show he’s got lots of energy and doesn’t go to bed early like most 72 year olds). Stupidly I asked someone why she was wearing a ‘Joe’ sticker? (Thinking Joe Biden? At a McCain rally?) Joe the Plumber of course. There were Joe the plumber stickers everywhere., but no sign of Joe. And banners saying things like ‘Cuba voted for change in 1959, and look what happened’, and ‘We’re voting to keep our freedom, keep our guns and keep our money: you can have the change’. And a Latin American band singing songs which all seemed to go ‘McCain, McCain, McCain-McCain-McCain’. For a very, very long time.

McCain arrived on stage gone half-past-midnight. He spoke to the 10,000 strong crowd for maybe 10 minutes, though most of that was interrupted by the audience chanting ‘USA, USA’ or boo-ing whenever Obama was mentioned. Which was a lot. Cindy was there, and Joe Lieberman and apparently Kelsey ‘Frazier’ Grammer, though I didn’t see him. (We got pretty close to the stage though, maybe 10 feet away from McCain). He got fired up towards the end and the crowd went wild. And then he was gone. Was rather strange being there really – part of it, yet not really part of it.

He asked the crowd how many Venezuelan-Americans were there; quite a lot. Then how many Columbian-Americans; quite a lot. Then how many Cuban-Americans: absolutely loads. Didn’t spot any black people, and I don’t think there were many non-Hispanics either, but the latter might be more to do with the demographics of Miami-Dade county. Do they really think Obama is a commie? Don’t know.

And even more stats...

Last bunch of stats coming up for the anoraks amongst you. (Why do I get the feeling I am writing this for an audience of one, Hopi?)

They allow early voting in Florida; since October 20th people have been able to vote in person and quite a few have chosen to do so. As at close of play today (eve of poll) 31% of registered Democrats in Miami-Dade county had voted, compared to only 20% of registered Republicans. At the risk of being a real anorak, that’s 171,777 Democrats cf. 78,180 Republicans. (That excludes the c.150,000 absentee ballots – i.e. postal votes – where Republicans always outnumber Democrats).

So… Sunday being the last day for early voting, we went to visit a couple of polling stations, at the Lemon City Library and then the North Miami Public Library. It was phenomenal. Huge queues of people (although we soon learned not to call them that, and to ask ‘how long have you been waiting in line’. A queue is something you play pool with).

Some people waited for more than 7 hours to cast their votes. It brought to mind those pictures of millions of black South Africans queueing to vote after apartheid was ended (and these were mostly black people too). People with disabilities were allowed to bypass the queue, but I spoke to one woman who was 8 months pregnant who’d been standing in line for 5 hours. And then the rain started….

It absolutely bucketed it down. “The rain is from McCain” one of our number kept shouting as we moved down the line handing out cookies, granola bars, bottles of water, and bin liners. OK, we got absolutely soaked, but compared to those who were standing in line for five, six, seven hours, it was nothing.

Wouldn’t of course be able to hand out goodies to voters in the UK, it would be regarded as ‘treating’, i.e. attempting to buy votes, but apparently this was OK because it was being offered to everyone and wasn’t actually from any candidate’s campaign. It was, I think, courtesy, of the SEIU, the union for service sector workers.

The line closed at 5pm, but anyone who’d joined it before then was allowed to vote, regardless of how long it took for the queue to go down. I’ve got a picture somewhere of us with the last man to join the line, who came equipped with a huge umbrella and a fold-out chair, much to the envy of those in front of him.

So why did it take so long? Basically, not enough polling stations, not enough staff, not enough printers, and a long and confusing ballot paper. On election day there will be 550 polling stations in Miami-Dade county; for early voting there were only 20. Because people could choose which station they went to, and because some of the ballot papers varied from precinct to precinct, each ballot paper had to be printed out individually. (Whereas on election day you have to go to your local polling station and the ballot papers will be ready for you). Why then, you might ask, do people opt for early voting instead of waiting till election day? Partly I think because they didn’t trust the system, and at least thought that if they voted early and something went wrong – e.g. they were turned away at the polling station – there might be time to sort it out. And partly because they were expecting even bigger queues on election day, though given the turnout figures so far, I don’t think this will be the case.

We chatted to loads of people in the lines, and also just as we were walking round Little Haiti earlier in the day; for a lot of them this was the first time they’d ever voted. Quite touching really, particularly given how poor most of them were. (We’re talking families living in two rooms, with beds in the living room and, in one case, just stuffed sacks to sit on. They’ve got no jobs, no health insurance – far poorer than anything you’d see in the UK).

Lots of statistics

As you can imagine there’s been a real drive by Democrats to register more people to vote in Florida. In 200/ if there’d been one more vote cast for A3 Gore in each precinct (roughly equivalent to a council ward, say of 5000 voters), he’d have been elected President.

Be warned – a blizzard of statistics now follows…

In 2004 in Miami-Dade county there were 1 million registered voters, including 453,000 registered Democrats, and 368,000 registered Republicans. This is out of a population of just under 3 million, but that includes children and people who aren’t entitled to vote, e.g. illegal immigrants, visitors and felons.

Fast forward to 2008….

There are now 554,000 registered Democrats in Miami-Dade county, cf. only 382,ooo registered Republicans. So - you do the math, as we say in the US of A. The Republicans have added 14,000 registered supporters since the last election; the Democrats have added more than 100,000. (There’s been a bit of controversy about this, in particular the role of a not-for-profit company called Acorn, but neither the time nor the inclination, nor indeed the knowledge, to dwell on that at the moment. The Democrats say it’s been stoked up by their opponents, that’s all I really know).

Bear in mind this is only one of 67 counties in Florida, and the rest of the state is more Republican; it was always Democrat – or ‘Dixiecrat’ – until the civil rights era, when the segregationists jumped ship to the Republicans. In 2004, 409,732 people voted for John Kerry in Miami-Dade county, out of a total 3.58m voting for him in Florida.

In Florida – i.e. the state - there are now 4.72m registered Democrats, and only 4.06m registered Republicans. There are 2.5m registered as independents. (Some people choose not to register a preference for a political party; we were told this is in part because some people choose to vote for the person rather than a party – and certainly the TV ads for the Congressional candidates didn’t even mention which party they were standing for. But also, we were told that the older Cubans in Florida are staunchly Republican but their children are less so; they may well vote Democrat, but aren’t going to let their parents know that by registering as Democrat supporters.)

Vote for Eddie

As I said it’s so different to UK elections… For a start, there are more than 20 separate votes on the ballot paper. Obviously top of the list is the presidential vote, but then there are votes for Congress, the state Senate, the clerk to the court, loads more. We met Eddie Lewis tonight, who is running for property appraiser (basically the guy who values how much your home/ property is worth, which you’re then taxed on). And no, he’s not running on a ‘vote for me, I’ll say your home is worth much less than it is’ ticket. His pitch is ‘integrity’ and ‘trust’. He spent 18 years in the Marines, and another 18 in the police force. It’s a non-party political post, but there are a couple of Democrats and a couple of Republicans in the field.

There are also issues to vote on: the big one is Amendment 2, which would outlaw civil partnerships. There are others on tax incentives for wind turbines, hurricane protection, land conservation… As you can imagine, this is all rather confusing for the voters, the vast majority of whom have just turned out to vote for Obama. (NB we were in Little Haiti; didn’t meet many – or any – McCain supporters).

Missive from Miami

So… not sure I even mentioned on here that I was off to Miami. But that is indeed where I am. I’m in a hotel room, it’s 11pm on November 3rd – but this won’t be posted till tomorrow morning because I’m borrowing someone’s laptop and don’t know how to do the wireless connection thing.

Arrived late-ish on Saturday, so only really had two days here so far. I’m with a group of 24, maybe 25, people who are active in UK politics in some way: mostly Labour, a few Tories and a token Lib Dem. I’m paying for myself. And we made a point today of walking to the beach and back again just so we could say we’d seen the ocean, but we’re here for the politics not the sunshine.

Just as well really, as it absolutely poured down on Sunday. So much for the Sunshine State! Some of us (OK, a couple of the Tories) went out on the McCain battle bus, but the rest of us were in Little Haiti with the Obama campaign. The idea is to see what lessons we can learn, but it’s so different to UK elections…

Red and blue (and orange)

I'm finally approaching the point where, when I see US election coverage on TV, I don't get alarmed when I see more blue than red on the map showing who's in line to win which state. (Donkeys and elephants still get me confused though.) I assumed there was some historical reason for the lefter of the two parties being blue, perhaps dating back to the Civil War, but no, it looks as if it was all down to the television companies, and quite a recent thing too.

On a tenuously related point, who was it who convinced the Liberal Party to choose orange (and then yellow)? It's not a good look, especially not those yellow jackets the women seem to favour at Lib Dem conferences.

My aversion to orange might stem from the fact that when I was growing up my mother decided that the best way to deal with having six daughters was to colour code them. Pink for number one (the cute blonde one); blue for number three; green for number four; purple for number five; and red for number six. Being the ginger one - or 'light auburn' as she used to diplomatically put it - I ended up being orange: orange toothbrush, orange clothes, orange wallpaper in my bedroom. (Very helpful as obviously without the colour-coding I would have had no idea at all where to sleep each night). She refuses to acknowledge even now that this was tantamount to child abuse.

Time for some campaigning

An entertaining little clip sent to me by Kelvin Blake. I'll off to Miami for the last week of the campaign, with about ten others. Procrastinated for a long time before booking the flight, but then thought what the hell, this could be history in the making and I want to be there for it.

She's a lady

Unsurprisingly, Sarah Palin has captured the heart of at least one Tory MP. Meanwhile, Political Betting is speculating whether Kitty Ussher could be Labour's answer to the mad and scary one. (No, not Nads). Kitty is of course not at all mad or scary, though she does have a rather alarming speaking head on her website which used to start talking at you without being asked. Stephen Williams has something similar, but I think you'd have to be very soft indeed to be even slightly scared by him.

And now William Rees-Mogg has joined in, saying 'Labour's Best Hope is the Palin Effect' - I'm sure Ruth Kelly and Harriet Harman are delighted to be singled out by the mighty Mogg for his approbation.

Well perhaps this is time to launch my bid to be the female politician who is the polar opposite of Sarah Palin in as many respects as you can possibly imagine?

• Christian creationist -vs- atheist Darwinist;
• gun toting moose-burger munching hunter -vs- a vegan who won't even kill mosquitos;
• 'hockey mum' of five strangely-named kids -vs- no kids, never wanted them (tho' proud auntie of thirteen (sort of) sensibly-named nieces and nephews - or at least not called Trig, Track or Bristol);
• opposed the designation of polar bears and Beluga whales as endangered species -v- campaigned against seal hunts, badger culling, whaling;
• finalist in Miss Alaska -vs- ..... ok, let's not go there.

And then there are her views on the death penalty, abortion, gun control, same sex marriage, climate change. And the glasses. My only weak spot is that apparently she likes riding snowmobiles - which I suspect might actually be quite good fun if not entirely environmentally sound.

The Vogue picture is photo-shopped by the way, by one of her constituents. There is however a real picture of Top Tory Theresa Villiers in this month's British Vogue, modelling 'workwear'. Tatler one day, Vogue the next - there are glammed-up Tories everywhere these days.

PS Have just come across a website suggesting Barack Obama must be anti-American because one of his daughters - Natasha - has a Russian name. Only in America...